Sunday, July 27, 2014

Strategizing for the Royal Flush

Hey, if I'm going to put something on my bucket list I am going to try to make it happen.

My first thought in pursuing this goal was to play a whole bunch of Omaha.  It takes better hands to win, and so I figured that would be my surest route.

But I have looked into the odds, and they are not as bad in hold 'em as I thought.  Apparently, with hands taken down to the river, it is only something like a 1 in 30,000 chance of getting a Royal Flush.

So the name of the game is to get tens of thousands of hands in as quick as possible.  Two options on poker stars: Zoom Poker and heads up.

Zoom poker, though insanely fun, has a few draw-backs for my project: 1.) the swings are huge -- so I don't know if my bankroll can be guaranteed to withstand it (it's all play money, but still).  2.) though I play a lot of hands an hour, nearly all of them are just folding quickly, so the odds of the Royal Flush are much less than 1 in 30,000 3.) Because nearly all the hands end up all-in, the computer just blasts through the hand, giving me a very short window to take a gratifying screen shot proving I got a Royal Flush.

So it looks like I'll just play a bunch of heads-up limit hold 'em.  This is great because it allows me to play at the lowest limits: 2/4 play money.  I am (play chip) profitable with fairly low "money" swings at short-handed 50/100 (play chip) hold 'em, so I can just win a bit there, and be bank rolled for a bunch of heads up.

Heads up limit hold em allows me to see a bunch of hands an hour, seeing the vast majority of flops.  I can expect to have a straight flush every 3,000 to 4,000 hands, and at some point I imagine I will get that Royal Flush.

Now, it occurred to me last night to try to "play for the Royal Flush," by folding any hands that didn't have an Ace, King, Queen, Jack, or 10 in them and playing to the river any hands that did.  That, however, was dreadfully boring and demoralizing because it lead to a dumping of chips.  So, my rule is that I have to get a Royal Flush in a game where I am actually playing to win.